The process of predicting future trends is inherently dangerous -- particularly since change seldom takes place in a totally predictable manner and because one can only see the future through the context of current experience.

Some change is predictable because it evolves from a continuation of existing trends.

Other forms of change are inherently unpredictable because they derive from undiscovered discontinuities. For example, if this document were composed in the mid-80's there would have been no mention of the WorldWide Web. The first web server was written late in 1990, and ten-years later the web has been estimated to consist of one billion unique pages -- clearly a rate of change that exceeded even the most extreme of predictions.

Furthermore, the trajectory for technology adoption is seldom smoothly linear.

Hence, spice the predictions herein with a healthy salting of skepticism.

Most of these pages were composed during 1999 and 2000. Since then the collapse of the Internet bubble resulted in major financial losses and the closing of several startup companies that were working vigorously to build the services and information environment described herein. While it is clear that the changes will be slower to arrive than originally envisioned in the enthusiasm of the late 90's, it is equally clear that the world will not revert back to a pre-Internet mode of life.