New technologies seldom emerge in a clean linear fashion or progress smoothly from the research labortories to public adoption.

In most circumstances they follow a path similar to that shown on the right. When first announced, the innovations attract great attention as well as speculative investment as everyone has high hopes that it will revolutionize the world. This phase can be dubbed the period of "great expectations".

After a while this enthusiasm peaks and eventually declines as the innovation fails to live up to its early hype. This is typically caused by a combination of factors including:

• People discover that the underlying technical difficulties are greater than originally anticipated.
• People find that the rewards are not as spectacular as hoped.
• People often misunderstand the broader social contexts that influence its sdoption.
• Attention shifts to a still newer technology that captivates public attention.

This can be thought of as the period of "disillusionment". This is frequently a dangerous period as people are tempted to reject the technology as just another failed concept without bothering to understand its eventual potential value to society.

Finally, comes the period of "maturity" when the technology begins to accomplish its more realistic expectations and becomes a part of everyday life.

It is often extremely difficulty to predict the trajectory for the maturity phase during the time of great expectations. Will it eventually prove to be very successful and widely adopted, or will it trail off in a path the is barely perceptible above zero?